2 Spring Forecast | 3 March 2026 Introduction Like some of her predecessors, Rachel Reeves has regularly claimed to want only one major fiscal event each year. In the Autumn 2025 Budget Red Book, she spoke of ”strengthening the fiscal framework to deliver on the government’s commitment to hold one major fiscal event (Budget) per year, supporting the economy with greater policy certainty”. The Finance Bill, now on its way through parliament, contains the necessary amending legislation. It requires the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to produce only one assessment of the fiscal headroom each year, rather than two, as it has previously. Nevertheless, twice a year the OBR must still undertake and publish the data used to calculate the headroom figure – hence the Spring Forecast (not this time a Statement). What the watchdog will not do is make a fiscal mandate assessment, although many external forecasters will step in to do so. It is easy to see why Rachel Reeves would not now want a full OBR assessment, given the problems she faced last year. Back then, disappointing preliminary projections prompted the announcement of hastily designed benefit reforms to make the numbers balance, only for a subsequent summer U-turn in to quell a back bench rebellion. With no official OBR assessment in March 2026, there is less pressure for any fiscal action. That helps after the two post-Budget revenue-reducing U-turns on IHT reliefs and business rates. From a longer term, strategic viewpoint, avoiding an annual cycle of Budget and quasi-Budgets makes sense, especially when, as now, the gap between events is only a few months. Many countries manage with only one yearly budget, resorting only to supplementary budgets when serious problems arise. Ironically, in the UK that might need to happen soon, depending upon developments in the Middle East. Official portrait of Rachel Reeves MP, by Lauren Hurley, licensed under Open Government Licence v3.0
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